Taiwan Described "Most Dangerous Place on Earth," Security in Taiwan Strait Cannot Only Rely Upon TSMC
By Yin Tsui-mei
United Daily News, April 30, 2021
That the cover story of the latest issue of The Economist described Taiwan as “the most dangerous place on Earth” is quite shocking to us, although this is not the first time the publication has put forward similar arguments. When responding to the timetable for potential conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, Admiral Philip Davidson, commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, indicated that the threat is manifest in the decade, in fact in the next six years. This is quite horrifying to the people in Taiwan.
Regarding whether there will be an outbreak of war in the Taiwan Strait, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is still responding using diplomatic language, stating that the so-called “danger” in The Economist analysis comes from China and that Chinese expansion and intimidation spearheads not only to Taiwan but also East China Sea, South China Sea, and South Asia as well. Chinese actions have severely harmed regional security, the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and peace in Indo-Pacific region as a whole.
The government’s saying that Taiwan will continue to deepen cooperation with countries of similar ideas to maintain the status quo of the Taiwan Strait is, to put it bluntly, nothing more than continuing to rely on the United States. But anyone who has the ability to think rationally clearly understands that the idea that the United States will protect Taiwan is a one-sided wishful thinking. American protection of Taiwan is out of its own interests. What Taiwan should do is try to link the peace of the Taiwan Strait and the interests of the United States.
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines indicated at the Senate Committee on Armed Services on April 29 that if the United States made it clear that it will be involved in the Taiwan Strait conflict, then China would find this deeply destabilizing, which would in turn hurt American interests. What Haines referenced is precisely the concept “strategic ambiguity,” which has been maintained by the United States over the past four decades.
Strategic ambiguity implies that the United States supports Taiwan, in accordance with the American “One China” policy, in order to ensure Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, but the United States does not clearly guarantee that when the mainland’s People’s Liberation Army attacks Taiwan, the United States will render help. The strategy has long been believed to be able to effectively curb Beijing’s ambitions and is in line with American national interests.
In addition to strategic ambiguity, American academic circles have never stopped argued for abandoning Taiwan. For example, Professor Charles Glaser of the George Washington University submitted an article to the Foreign Affairs journal on April 28, stating that Taiwan is not a vital interest to the United States and that the U.S. should rethink the priority of its East Asia policy. He said that the United States should practice “retrenchment,” including redeployment of its military forces in the Asia-Pacific region and ending its commitment to Taiwan.
In the past, whenever a political party or public opinion mentioned the possibility of a war eruption in the Taiwan Strait, it would be regarded as alarmist or propagating fear for mainland China’s sake. Now even foreign professional media have “certified” the Taiwan Strait crisis. In such a spiraling tension those in power should always be well prepared. Enhancing defensive military capabilities is, at most, the worst option. The best policy, instead, is to prevent the war from happening.
The security of the Taiwan Strait must not rely solely on the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), often dubbed the “sacred mountain of the country.” Taiwan’s semiconductor advantages may exist now and into the next few years, not forever. In particular, the possibility of the industrial chain interruption caused by the U.S.-China trade war and the new crown epidemic has surfaced. Europe and the United States have realized this situation and started to rebalance the chips industry. TSMC’s role as the sacred mountain may be weakened under the macro trends.
Taiwanese politicians’ determination to “fight to the last broom” is only a populist tactic used to manipulate public opinion and must not be taken seriously. When war comes, the people will be plunged to the abyss of misery.